Social Security Projection Falls to 3.6%

The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) predicts that Social Security’s 2027 Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) will be 3.6%, which is 0.8 percentage points higher than this year’s COLA of 2.8%. If TSCL’s projected 2027 COLA is correct, average benefits would rise by $69.75, from $1,937.53 to $2,007.28.

The Social Security Administration will announce the official 2027 COLA on October 14. The government calculates the COLA by taking the average yearly change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September.

If TSCL’s projection holds, the 2027 COLA will be the highest in four years. The COLA was 2.8% in 2026, 2.5% in 2025, and 3.2% in 2024. It was 8.7% in 2023, as post-COVID inflation reached its peak.

Inflation has remained high throughout the 2020s. From 2010 to 2019, the COLA (and inflation, as measured by the CPI-W) averaged approximately 1.4%. From 2020 to 2025, it averaged 3.7%.

"One of the biggest challenges this year has been the sharp swings in inflation," said TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton. "It started at 2.2% in January, climbed to 4.4% in May, then fell to 3.5% in June. Fortunately, our model is designed not to overreact to these swings, keeping our COLA projections relatively steady.

“Seniors don’t experience inflation as a percentage on a chart," she said. "They experience it at the grocery store, at the pharmacy, in their insurance premiums and when they pay the rent. That’s why the size of the COLA matters, but so does how accurately it reflects their real-world expenses.

“Frankly, it’s infuriating that seniors must wait for a COLA to catch up with prices that have already driven up their grocery bills, housing costs, healthcare expenses and insurance premiums," Benton added.